Friday, February 28, 2014

The Coca-Cola Company future in doubt: FLOTUS attacks again First Lady

The Coca-Cola Company future is in doubt again.
2/28/2014

With its flagship product in doubt, Coca-Cola is experiencing pain. KO is at $38, close to its 52-week low as of today, while S&P is at all-time high. What a stark contrast!

FLOTUS Michelle Obama just unveiled the new nutrition fact label on foods with fanfares from USDA, and other groups. The new proposal will hit Coca-Cola and other soft drink companies hard.

  1. Calories will be shown in bigger fonts and the number will be larger. A 20-ounce soda is 275 calories, not 100 as FDA uses serving size that is likely to be consumed by one person. If Coca-Cola followed that FDA proposal, a label of a 2-liter bottle would have to be an eye-popping 800 calories right on the front of the package. Consumers will be shocked, negatively.
  2. Since we all hate fat, FLOTUS' proposal will hurt Coca-Cola. The line of Calories from fat will be removed. Coca-Cola will lose a selling point of zero-fat products.
  3. This one is the killer. The new nutrition fact will add one line of added sugar. All the carbs in Coca are added sugar.
The stock market already discounted such a hit. KO is at $38, close to its 52-week low as of today. See a chart below thanks to Yahoo Finance.

Chart forThe Coca-Cola Company (KO)
Coca-Cola will not die, but will have a bumpy road ahead of it. The management has realized its problem and is diversifying. It just bought 10% stake of Green Mountain Coffee House. Selling coffee is the future? That is a billion dollar question and a lot of people's jobs are at stake.

I can argue that conventional soft drinks, including Coca-Cola, are dead products with the following points.
  1. The historic success of Coca-Cola built on this: Soft drinks offer a cheap calories source when people are poor. And it tastes great. Still do.
  2. But time has changed. No longer faced with a food shortage, we have the problem of obesity. Since the world is getting richer we can afford to over-eat. People are hard-wired to over-eat, and we have a body weight problem.
  3. Everybody hates fat, and drinking soft drink makes us fat. 
  4. The reputation is getting worse. People coined empty calories, food bullies to describe the sugary drinks.
  5. Can you live without soft drinks? Yes. Jesus lived just fine.

No comments: