2/28/2014
With its flagship product in doubt, Coca-Cola is experiencing pain. KO is at $38, close to its 52-week low as of today, while S&P is at all-time high. What a stark contrast!
FLOTUS Michelle Obama just unveiled the new nutrition fact label on foods with fanfares from USDA, and other groups. The new proposal will hit Coca-Cola and other soft drink companies hard.
- Calories will be shown in bigger fonts and the number will be larger. A 20-ounce soda is 275 calories, not 100 as FDA uses serving size that is likely to be consumed by one person. If Coca-Cola followed that FDA proposal, a label of a 2-liter bottle would have to be an eye-popping 800 calories right on the front of the package. Consumers will be shocked, negatively.
- Since we all hate fat, FLOTUS' proposal will hurt Coca-Cola. The line of Calories from fat will be removed. Coca-Cola will lose a selling point of zero-fat products.
- This one is the killer. The new nutrition fact will add one line of added sugar. All the carbs in Coca are added sugar.
The stock market already discounted such a hit. KO is at $38, close to its 52-week low as of today. See a chart below thanks to Yahoo Finance.
Coca-Cola will not die, but will have a bumpy road ahead of it. The management has realized its problem and is diversifying. It just bought 10% stake of Green Mountain Coffee House. Selling coffee is the future? That is a billion dollar question and a lot of people's jobs are at stake.
I can argue that conventional soft drinks, including Coca-Cola, are dead products with the following points.
- The historic success of Coca-Cola built on this: Soft drinks offer a cheap calories source when people are poor. And it tastes great. Still do.
- But time has changed. No longer faced with a food shortage, we have the problem of obesity. Since the world is getting richer we can afford to over-eat. People are hard-wired to over-eat, and we have a body weight problem.
- Everybody hates fat, and drinking soft drink makes us fat.
- The reputation is getting worse. People coined empty calories, food bullies to describe the sugary drinks.
- Can you live without soft drinks? Yes. Jesus lived just fine.