工业品出厂价普降 钢铁石化品跌幅居前

统计局：工业品出厂价普降 钢铁石化品跌幅居前--经济频道--人民网
人民网北京2010/6月17日专电　（记者扎西）17日，国家统计局发布部分重点企业主要工业品 出厂价格。数据显示，5月下旬至本月上旬，相应产品价格整体下滑，其中钢铁制品及石化产品跌幅较大。

　　因受国家调控房地产市场影响，加 上经济增长放缓，汽车产量、房屋开工率等指标均有显著下滑，使得下游钢材、有色需求锐减，引发价格滑坡。同期，国际油价出现大幅回落，发改委于5月末下调 国内成品油零售价220-230元/吨，国内石化产品价格随之进一步下行。

　　数据显示，5月21日至6月10日，国内大中型普钢环比下 滑3.6%-13.1%，小型线材下滑4.4%-7.3%。其中各类螺纹钢价格在 3532.4-3760.8元/吨，环比下滑3.6%-7.3%；同期 品位在56%以上的铁矿石报价为580.4元/吨，环比下滑6.5%。同期，国内原油出厂价为3747.1元/吨，环比下滑4%。成品油方面，93#汽 油、97#汽油、-10#柴油、0#柴油出厂价分别为6404.5元 /吨、6846.9元/吨、6035.2元/吨和5464.8元/吨，环比分别下滑 2.7%、2.5%、2.7%和3%。乙烯出厂价为7860.9元 /吨，环比下跌9%。

　　有色金属方面，铜价42692.3元/吨， 环比下滑6.5%；铝锭11421.5元/吨，环比下滑6.2%。同期，各型号水泥出厂价则在248.9-378元/吨不等，环比下滑 1.8%-2.1%。国内无烟煤价格为452.7元/吨，环比涨1.1%。


URL
http://finance.people.com.cn/GB/11898810.html


Accessed
Thursday, June 17, 2010 4:06:28 PM

Deepwater Horizon oil spill, a death by thousand knives, winners and losers

Deepwater Horizon oil spill 4202010

light Louisiana crude oil shows the color of orange to red. I suspect the black part of crude was lost to solidification under high pressure under sea.
How bad is the situations

The gusher, now estimated by the quasi-official Flow Rate Technical Group to be flowing at 20,000 to 40,000 barrels per day URL
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon_oil_spill Accessed Monday, June 14, 2010
At 30,000 barrels/day the amount of = 44 kiloton of TNT/day

Place Date Yield of the explosion
Hiroshima A-bomb 广岛 08/06/1945 15 kilotons TNT
Nagasaki A-bomb 长崎 08/09/1945 21 kilotons TNT
Deepwater Horizon Rig 04/20/2010 44 kilotons TNT/per day^a

^a leak based on 30,000 barrels/day . 1 Barrel = 42 US gallons = 5,800,000 Btu .

What is going to happen?

1. the effect of oil contamination is long term. It will take more than 100 years for the nature to digest the crude. It takes millions years for the crude to form. The crude is kinetically stable, and thermodynamically unstable with chemist's parlance. Most of them are fused benzene rings.
2. The crude will coagulate into balls with diameters ranging from millimeters to inches. And those tar balls will settle into holes of beaches.
   
3. Those chemicals are toxic, carcinogin. They are water insoluble and soluble in fat. Therefore no more fish oils from Gulf.
4. Fish will die. Fish gill will be neutralized by the radicals generated from the bio-degradation of crude oil, rendering fish cannot get oxygen from water.
   
5. the damage is in the trillions US dollars. Therefore, BP has to file bankruptcy, and sell to a third party, such as Exxon Mobil or PetroChina. Sale to PetroChina is politically dead since last time CNOOC failed to buy Unocal because US Congress was vehemently against it. When the news announces, Exxon Mobil buys BP US interests, Exxon Mobil stock will dive. A buying opportunity for XOM for average investors?
6. The current $3/gallon US gasoline at 06/14/2010 is too low, it doesn't cover the risk factor of crude production.
7. higher cost for gasoline. Bad news for American drivers. Exxon and Saudis will laugh all the way to the bank.

Winners
Saudis > Exxon.

Losers
Environment > car drivers > Obama.